Every channel costs money or hours. What each one demands, which figures used to compare them have no source, and the one effect that was actually measured.
Every channel available to a small service business costs money, hours, or both. Ranking them honestly means knowing what each one demands and how much evidence stands behind it. On both counts the marketing literature is worse than it looks.
Start with the numbers used to justify the ranking, because three of the most quoted do not survive being traced.
“46 percent of searches have local intent.” Attributed to Google everywhere. It appears in no Google publication. The chain ends at a social media post from 10 October 2018 in which a conference attendee reported that a Google representative had said it during a presentation. A search industry blog repeated the post the same day with no link to any document, and everyone since has cited Google directly. No study, no method, no sample, and no update in eight years.
“76 percent of people who search locally visit a place within 24 hours.” This one has a real citation, and reading it is instructive: “smartphone users=1000, local searchers=634, purchases=1,140, May 2016.” So it rests on 634 people, it is a decade old, and the page carrying it no longer loads. A different Google study from 2014 put the same figure at 50 percent on a different method.
“The average cost per lead in your trade is X.” No United States public institution publishes a cost per click or a cost per acquisition for any industry. Neither major advertising platform publishes benchmarks by sector; both route advertisers to account-specific forecasting tools instead. Every average you have been shown was assembled by an agency from the accounts it happens to manage, which is a convenience sample of its own client list.
That is not a reason to give up on comparison. It is a reason to compare on what you can observe yourself.
One arbitration sits upstream of this ranking and is treated separately: whether to buy demand from a lead platform or build your own channel. That is the subject of home services, renting demand or building it. What follows assumes you are building.
Since the published comparisons are unusable, compare on inputs instead. Every channel here costs something you can count before you commit to it.
Channel
Money
Your hours
Compounds
Evidence behind it
Completing your listing
none
one afternoon
yes
one controlled study
Asking every customer for a review
none
minutes per job
yes
policy rules, no effect size
Referral from past work
none
ongoing quality
yes
none published at this scale
Paid leads from a platform
high, per lead
low
no
no published effect size
Paid search
high, ongoing
medium to set up
no
randomized evidence, small businesses
Organic content
none
high, sustained
yes
none published at this scale
Social posting
none
high, sustained
partly
none published at this scale
Two columns deserve explanation.
Compounds means the effort leaves something behind when you stop. A review sits on your profile permanently. A purchased lead does not exist the day after the job. Google’s own definition of the prominence ranking factor makes this concrete: it is “based on info like how many websites link to your business and how many reviews you have”, both of which accumulate.
Evidence is deliberately harsh. Most of these channels have no published effect size at this business scale, which does not mean they do not work. It means anyone quoting a number for them is quoting a vendor.
Google ran a controlled comparison in July 2014 and published it: 1,000 respondents, five business categories including auto repair and hair salons, a control cell shown a minimal listing and a test cell shown a complete verified listing for the same business.
The difference in stated perception:
Statement, share who agree
Minimal listing
Complete listing
Is a reputable business
36%
69%
Is well-established
38%
68%
Knows what it’s doing
35%
67%
Offers quality products or services
32%
66%
Is a business I would visit
44%
61%
Two caveats the document itself supplies. It was run in what it calls “a laboratory environment”, so these are perceptions rather than visits or jobs. And it was conducted in 2014 on the search results pages of 2014.
Even discounted for both, this is the strongest evidence available for the cheapest action on the list. Finishing a listing takes an afternoon and costs nothing.
There is one randomized experiment on businesses this size, and it is worth more than any case study.
Free advertising was given to 7,209 businesses randomly drawn from 18,294, for three months. Page views rose 19 percent, direction requests 14 percent, telephone calls 7 percent, reviews 5 percent.
Three findings sharpen that.
The least known gained the most. Independent operators gained more than national chains with comparable attributes. Advertising works by informing, and there is nothing to inform someone of if they already know you.
Nothing carried over. Effects stopped the moment the advertising stopped.
And orders did not move measurably. Effects on bookings were not statistically significant, and the authors state they were underpowered on that outcome. The return figure quoted from this study elsewhere comes from an appendix calculation on pre-experiment tax data matched to 13 percent of the sample, which the authors themselves call “a back-of-the-envelope calculation”.
Why you cannot settle this with a test
The reasonable response is to measure your own channels properly. The arithmetic is against you, and someone has computed exactly how much.
Across 25 large field experiments, each with more than half a million users, researchers calculated what precision those experiments achieved. To distinguish a highly profitable campaign from a break-even one, the median campaign would have to be nine times larger. To resolve a ten percentage point difference in return, which is an ordinary threshold for a spending decision, it would have to be 62 times larger, which the authors describe as “nearly impossible for a campaign of any realistic size.”
That is for advertisers spending millions. For a business running a van, formal measurement of return is simply not available.
What is available is cruder and still useful: switch one channel off for a fortnight and count the calls. It will not give you a return on investment. It will tell you whether the phone notices.
Ordered by evidence and by what stays behind, not by what a vendor recommends.
1. Finish the listing. Free, one afternoon, and the only item on the list with a published controlled test behind it. Google’s implicit-category rule also means you can stop adding categories: selecting a specific one automatically includes the broader ones above it.
2. Ask every customer for a review, and script nothing. Free, minutes per job, and it accumulates on the one ranking factor Google describes as reputation. Ask everyone rather than only the satisfied ones, which is both the platform rule and the federal test.
3. Make the work referable. No published effect size exists at this scale, and it remains the channel with the lowest cost per job in almost every trade. Turning up when you said you would is a competitive position in a field where four out of five operators have no employees at all.
4. Buy leads to fill a gap, and budget them as fuel. They work, they cost per unit, and they leave nothing behind. Useful for a slow month, dangerous as a foundation.
5. Run paid search once the first three are in place. The experiment says it moves calls and that the gain concentrates on people who did not already know you. It also says the effect stops when the money does. When those three are done and the diary still has gaps, that is the point at which our B2B paid acquisition work is worth buying, with the spend read against calls per week rather than against a sector average.
6. Treat content and social as long projects or not at all. Both cost hours rather than money and both compound, but nothing published measures their effect at this scale. Start them because you can sustain them, not because a figure said so.
And keep one habit that costs nothing: whenever a number is used to justify a spend, ask where it came from. Three of the four figures most commonly used in this market do not survive that question.
Nobody can answer that from published evidence, because no institution publishes cost per lead by trade and no platform publishes sector benchmarks. What can be ranked is what each channel demands in money and hours, and how much evidence supports it.
Is it true that 46 percent of searches have local intent?
There is no source. The figure traces to a 2018 social media post reporting an unattributed remark at a conference, appears in no Google publication and has not been updated since. Google's own dated document says nearly one third of mobile searches are related to location.
What is a normal cost per lead in my trade?
No public institution publishes one, and neither advertising platform publishes benchmarks by sector. Every average in circulation comes from an agency aggregating the accounts it happens to manage, which is a convenience sample of its own client base.
What is the cheapest thing that actually works?
Completing your business listing. The only controlled comparison Google published found the share judging a business reputable rose from 36 percent to 69 percent between a minimal and a complete listing. It measures perception in a laboratory setting, and it costs an afternoon.
Can I test which channel is working?
Not with statistical precision. A study of 25 large field experiments found the median campaign would need to be 62 times larger to resolve a 10-point difference in return. What you can do is switch one channel off for a fortnight and count calls.